The Democrats’ path to a Senate majority is improving. In fact, recent polls show the party leading in three states where President Donald Trump reached double digits in 2024: Alaska, Ohio and Texas. Democrats need at least two of these to win a majority.
But while it looks like they may be crossing that difficult threshold, other states are proving more difficult.
The polls in Iowa — which Trump also carried by double digits — have been closer than those in Alaska, Ohio and Texas, according to some polls — including new CNN polling released Thursday.
And even though Democrats are looking like they can win some pretty red states, they’re still struggling to close out swing and even blue-leaning territory in Maine, Michigan, and possibly New Hampshire. (There are also some questions about Minnesota, but data there is limited.)
The road to the 2026 midterms begins now
The idea that, a month before the midterm elections, Democrats would poll better in Ohio and Texas than in Maine and Michigan would have been called madness a year ago. But this is where we are.
So what do the surveys tell us about why this is so? Let’s dig in.
The story here isn’t what the Democrats are doing badly; It’s just that they’re not polling as well in Alaska, Ohio and Texas — despite Trump carrying all those states by similar margins in 2024.
Democrats are winning in recent qualitative surveys up to alaska 7texas by 6 one in some surveysAnd ohio as well as 6 and 8 score.
But new CNN poll still shows 6-point Democratic lead in Ohio cnn iowa poll GOP Representative Ashley Hinson was neck-and-neck with 45% and Democratic state Senator Josh Turek with 43%. Similarly, other surveys also show a significant net jump.
So why the difference?
There is not much difference in climate between Iowa and Ohio. In both states, CNN polls show that nearly three-quarters of likely voters said Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living, nearly 7 in 10 said gas prices have been at least a moderate hardship, and 55%-58% said the tariffs have been bad for their states.
But Iowa appears somewhat less willing to abandon Trump and the GOP. The president’s approval rating there (41%–42% in CNN and New York Times-Siena College polling) is not as low as in Ohio (36%–38%). And a CNN poll shows that 53% of likely voters in Iowa prefer GOP control of Congress, while 52% in Ohio prefer Democratic control.
Turek’s image numbers have also declined slightly. Fox News polling shows Iowa Democrats’ net image ratings are declining +18 in June (from 51% favorable to 33% unfavorable) +8 at the end of September (48%-40%).
Plus, Hinson seems to have done a good job of mobilizing his base. While 66% of his voters in the CNN poll say their vote is about voting for him rather than his opponent, only 44% say the same about Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted.
I
This blue state could be the biggest headache for Democrats right now.
a fresh New York Times poll Showed Trump’s approval rating to be over 30 points, but virtually every quality Senate poll is within the margin of error.
Some Democrats panicked when a Times poll showed GOP Sen. Susan Collins at 49% and Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson at 46%.
The bigger problem for him is that voters are not attracted to Jackson. His image was underwater at both times (41% favorable and 49% unfavorable among likely voters) and Marist College Turnout (43%-47% of registered voters).
and a CBS News-YouGov Poll Only 47% of Democrats and independents said they were glad he was the Democratic nominee, while 53% preferred someone else.
The Times poll also showed that likely voters said 51%–35% that the state was headed in the wrong direction. This was the worst of all the states the Times surveyed for Senate races.
(And that might explain why Collins spent most of Tuesday’s debate attacking Maine’s Democratic leaders.)
Led by democrat Abdul al-Sayed 5 points Times poll among likely voters and 7 points Among registered voters in the Marist poll. But other surveys such as a fox news survey Show margin-of-error races.
It is quite clear that the closeness of the race reflects at least some voters’ uncertainty about the leftist candidate, El-Sayed, whom many Democrats were worried about nominating in the first place.
El-Sayed consistently trails the Democratic nominee for governor, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, in polling. And his image rating is usually just even.
The Times poll showed that 50% of likely voters said El-Sayed was the strongest candidate in the race, while 36% said the same about Republican former Representative Mike Rogers. The Fox poll showed that 52% of voters were worried about El-Sayed being too liberal – about the same as the 54% who were worried about Rogers being too close to Trump.
All of this helps explain why El-Sayed is getting the fewest crossover voters from Republicans of any Democratic candidate in a key Senate race, according to a recent CNN review. While other Democrats are getting double-digit support from GOP voters, he’s in the low single digits, according to the poll.
The latest qualitative polling shows Democratic Representative Chris Pappas taking the lead over former GOP Senator John E. Sununu. he led 5 points And in the Times Poll 8 points In the University of New Hampshire survey.
But Democrats would like it not to be that close, given that this position belongs to Kamala Harris in 2024.
One reason it’s somewhat close is that Pappas’s image is only OK (43% favorable and 44% unfavorable in the Times poll).
The second thing is that GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte is popular and up for re-election at the top of the ticket. She was ahead by 11 points in the Times poll.
And then there’s the name ID that comes with Sununu. It’s not just that he comes from a famous political family in New Hampshire; His brother Chris Sununu was a popular GOP governor until last year.
There is also speculation that some people think John E. Sununu Is The former governor, and he’s helping them. Cook Political Report recent referred to as a factor helping John E. Sununu, whose campaign signs do not include his first name. And the Washington Post recently found that some New Hampshire residents Thought Chris Sununu was running for Senate.
However, to the extent that confusion is a factor, it may be reduced as voters become bombarded with more advertisements and begin to pay more attention to who is actually on the ballot.