Editor’s note: The following story contains spoilers for “All You Can See.”
Everyone’s Talking About A24 Documentary “You Can See Everything” and Many Oscar Predictors Are Jumping on It best picture bandwagon. Don’t buy the hype.
While there’s a lot to admire about Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s entertaining non-fiction approach to presenting the twisted reality of disgraced Thanatos founder Elizabeth Holmes just before she was sent to prison, there’s still a long road ahead for a surprise box-office documentary hit ($45 million domestic and counting) to garner enough Oscar votes for a Best Picture nomination.
Those who believe it’s possible are listening to the current buzz and noise, much of it from young film fans on social media and the undeniable heat of the film. A24’s brilliant “no spoilers” marketing campaign has driven more moviegoers than usual into theaters early on. But the Academy’s membership is still senior-focused.
Here are the steps required to grab a BP node for A24.
Step One: The critic group wins. This week’s Gotham nomination for Best Documentary Feature is a start. The film needs to receive awards from NYFCC, LAFCA and NSFC. The Golden Globes won’t be any help, since they don’t give any documentary awards. The support of critics will increase the prestige and convince the backward people to watch the film on the Academy portal.
Step Two: Appeal to international voters. “YCSE” is an American movie, even though it tackles alternate reality issues familiar to everyone. It is yet to be opened abroad. Recognition from the European Film Awards or BAFTA would show support outside North America. (check eligibility)
Step Three: Legalize the Film With a 750-member documentary branch, which includes Morgan Neville’s “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” is notorious for rejecting popular non-fiction. and Brett Morgan’s “Jane.” Some documents hold strong opinions about voter reappraisal, on which the YCSE depends in the second half. There is a strong possibility that the Document Branch will not nominate this film.
Step Four: Find Nathan Fielder. The offbeat, intentionally weird creator behind the TV series “The Rehearsal” and “The Curse” is an acquired taste. He’s been working on some press interviews and panels, but expressing happiness in full court may not be his strong suit.
Step Five: Exit the Dock Box. In the 98-year history of the Oscars, no documentary has been nominated for Best Picture. Over the past two decades, no docs have been successful at the box office, not even Michael Moore’s 2004 Palme d’Or winner “Fahrenheit 9/11” — which was ineligible for an Oscar because it was televised before a controversial national election. Moore received two documentary Oscar nominations for “Sicko” and “Bowling for Columbine”, winning the award for the latter.
Step Six: Beat the A24 Competition. This year four films from A24 are competing for Best Picture. The distributor is also pushing Olivia Wilde’s four-hander “The Invited,” Jesse Eisenberg’s crowdpleaser “The Debut” and newbie Jordan Firstman’s “Club Kid” (a more likely original screenplay nod). One Oscar publicist said, “No one has the ability to do every film justice.” “It’s hard for a studio to get more than two.”
Step Seven: Attract the Actors. With over 1,100 voters, the actors are the dominant branch in the academy. At GoldDerby.com, experts listed Amanda Seyfried in sixth place as a supporting actor contender. (The film placed eighth for Best Picture.) In “YCSE”, she reprises her role as Elizabeth Holmes in various reenactments of the role she played in the TV series “The Dropout”. And she plays herself. It’s hard to call it. Many believe this is more about A24 promotion than reality.
Step Eight: Solve the Numbers. Look at the branches of the Academy and count the branches that are likely to vote for this film. The classic way to figure out a Best Picture contender is to see where its support stands among the 10,365 active voters. That’s how I found out that “F1” might be up for Best Picture last year. Some of the 750 Documentary Branch members will vote for “YCSE” and are most likely to see the film. Anyone can vote for Best Picture, but the doc is unlikely to win any of the craft nominations: Animation (729), Casting Director (191), Cinematographer (326), Costume Designer (205), Editor (421), Hair & Makeup (225), Music (430), Production Design (446), Production & Technology (424, they don’t have a branch but they vote), Short Films (234), Sound (575), and Visual Effects. (679). Non-craftsmen such as cast representatives (266), directors (587), executives (770), marketing and public relations (672), producers (692), and writers (534) are more likely to vote for the film. There is no script for the film. But the writer can appreciate its simple structure and development.
Ultimately, if “YCSE” were to become the first doc to score a Best Picture slot, it would likely do so without any other nominations.