No. 7 seed Karolina Muchova earned a dominant win in the fourth round of the China Open on Tuesday, holding No. 12 seed Naomi Osaka from break downs in the first and third sets and eventually converting her ninth match point to lead 7-5, 1-6, 7-6 (7) in 2 hours and 52 minutes.
Muchova, who was down 4-1 in the first set and 3-1 in the deciding set, held a triple-match point on Osaka’s serve at 5-4 in the third set – but was unable to take a total of five chances to win that game. In the ensuing tiebreak, the Czech missed another three match points, but converted the ninth in style with a delicate backhand volley winner.
“To be honest, I didn’t even believe I could finish the match,” Muchova said in her on-court interview. “So many match points, I don’t know how many. After one match point I said, ‘Okay, I’m going for it,’ but then I think she always played nice and steady, and didn’t make mistakes – unlike me, unfortunately! I was trembling. I’m glad I made the last volley and it was really that close. Naomi could have stood here. This is me, and I’m really grateful for that.”
In the eighth edition of the pair’s six-year rivalry, Muchova improved to 5-3 overall against Osaka, backed by two grass-court wins this year – although she still trails 3-2 on outdoor hard courts. She booked her fourth quarterfinal at the WTA 1000 level or above this season, following her Doha title, Wimbledon final run and Miami semifinal performance.
Here are the highlights of Muchova’s victory:
His backhand almost cost him the match… but he ended up winning the match
Over the past season, Muchova’s drive backhand has been an area of risk for her – both more likely to break and less lethal than her forehand wing. She has reached that level in 2026, which is one reason why it has been the most consistent in her career so far.
But as soon as she tried to oust Osaka, it almost let her down again. She lost three of the five match points at 5–4 on unforced backhand errors – Osaka saved the other two with an ace and a service winner. Another backhand spray enabled Osaka to hold on to that game, and another shot into the net wasted her seventh match point. (Match points six and eight were lost due to unforced forehand errors.)
It was no surprise that, at 7-7 in the tiebreak, Osaka began targeting that wing specifically – and neither did the 2019 champion back down as she hit it with full force. However, Muchova managed to withstand all the momentum – and then found the space she needed to redirect a winner down the line to bring up her ninth and final match point.
“I think I was strong on the backhand side today,” Muchova said. “I feel like all the players are hitting my backhand. But I would say it was a shot that won the match for me today.”
Muchova has been perfect in the third set tiebreak this year.
The result extended Muchova’s record in third-set tiebreaks to 3–0 this year – she defeated Ajla Tomljanovic 4–6, 6–1, 7–6(5) in the Brisbane second round, her first of the season, and then saved a match point to defeat Coco Gauff 6–2, 1–6, 7–6.[10] In the Wimbledon semi-finals.
The only other player with a 3-0 record in deciding tiebreaks this year is Rabat champion Petra Marcinko (who won her trio against Camila Osorio in Auckland, Yelizaveta Kotlyar in Rabat and Antonia Ruzic in Eastbourne). No player has won more than three deciding tiebreaks at tour level this year; Anna Kalinskaya has also won three, but also lost two.
Muchova’s strong tiebreak performance in the third set is nothing new – the 30-year-old has an 8-3 career record at the tour level, dating back to 2019. She has not lost a third set tiebreak since the second round of the 2023 Australian Open, when she lost 6-7(1), 6-2, 7-6.[6] To Danielle Collins.
This is in contrast to Osaka’s 2–6 career record in deciding tiebreaks. The four-time major champion has not won one since the 2019 Stuttgart quarter-finals, when she defeated Donna Vekic 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(4).
In this, Muchova admitted that she “got a little lucky” – at 6–6, Osaka hit a forehand return crosscourt as she was trying to reach match point for the first time. In response Muchova simply put her racket on the ball – and her forehand dribbled over the net cord for an accidental steal.
Muchova next faces a clever Czech in her own frame
Next up for Muchova is an all-Czech derby against No. 26 seed Nikola Bartunkova, who made her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal after defeating Sinja Krause 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 over Aryna Sabalenka in her third round. This will be the first time the pair will face each other and will be an interesting matchup. The 20-year-old Bartunkova’s potent blend of power and finesse has drawn plenty of comparisons with Muchova as she has risen from No. 126 at the start of the year to her current career high of No. 34.
Muchova has been aware of Bartunkova’s talent for some time. They both train at the same club in Prague, and are frequent practice partners on tour.
“I’m not surprised it could be a Czech match,” he said. “It happens in every tournament, in all the rounds you can play a Czech player. Now it’s not really a surprise, I would say… I’ve never played with Niki. He’s a smart player.”