Ahead of the Grammy nominations on November 16, Rolling Stone is breaking down 11 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will win (and who should win) on Grammy night.
Record of the Year – not to be confused with Song of the Year – honors the recorded version of a song, and is awarded to all those involved in its musical creation. This year’s crop will likely see established artists pitted against relative newcomers in a mix of genres, including Ella Langley, Ray, Noah Kahn and Protege Rosalia.
“The Grammys, there’s a huge business in all of this,” explains Tony Gervino, editor-in-chief of Tidal. “They’re trying to age down and attract a younger audience and be relevant in that youth space, combined with the fact that there are a lot of young and new artists who are slaying it. I see them moving a little more in that direction.”
Records of the Year – Our Predictions
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need”
Noah Kahn, “The Great Divide”
Ella Langley, “Choosin’ Texas”
Bruno Mars, “I Just Might”
Ray, “Where’s my husband!”
Olivia Rodrigo, “The Cure”
Rosalía, feat. Björk and Yves Tumor, “Berghaven”
Taylor Swift, “The Fate of Ophelia”
Who will win?
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need”
It is difficult to predict. For starters, competing with gorgeous songs like Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need” and country star Ella Langley’s record-breaking “Choosin’ Texas” is a feat. The disappointment would mark the first time in more than a decade that the Grammys awarded a country artist a ROTY (Lady A and “Need You Now” were last awarded in 2011). And Langley’s hit has broken several chart records, including becoming the longest-running number one song in the history of the Billboard Hot 100. This comes at a time when sales and streaming numbers for the genre are increasing.
Don’t even count Ray out. “Sometimes the Grammys go with people they know. They’re not familiar with every song so they rely on people they’re familiar with,” says Gervino. “If I had to guess, I’d say Ray is going to win record of the year.”
All this aside, we see Dean taking the gold home. Their song reflects the nostalgia and gorgeous technicalities that the Grammys love to reward — and that’s not a knock on this brilliant hit. ROTY honors the architects of the song, so expect to see Dean, co-writer Tobias McDonald Jesso Jr. (who won the inaugural Songwriter of the Year title in 2023) and co-writer/producer Zack Nahom on stage.
Who should win?
Rosalia, “Bargain”
The first single of their instant classic, luxsees the pop maverick combine her training as a conservatory musician with operatic vocals in German and Spanish, set against the burgeoning London Symphony Orchestra and featuring cameos from Björk and Yves Tumor. There’s nothing else that sounds like it and it’s impossible to pin it down to a single genre, making it difficult to pin down for the Grammys. Noah Goldstein, Sir Dylan, and Jake Miller, who produced the song with Rosalía, worked together surgically to structure this masterpiece, combining the song’s irreverence with its profound spirituality.
Gervino says, “I’d like to see Rosalía win something for that album. There should be a world where that kind of creativity and talent is rewarded.” “The first time I heard [Lux]It’s like Robert Johnson – suddenly it comes out of nowhere and you stop, where did it come from? There is no precedent for that album. You can’t put it in a box. That’s the challenge with him.”
area forecasting
The Olivias are competing for the top spot this year. And Rodrigo, who has had a memorable year, will likely make the list with “The Cure” – he also has a good chance to win it all. There are also some legends worth keeping in mind: Taylor Swift and Bruno Mars are Grammy darlings and may appear here. Then, Noah says, whose great divide Album Gervino called it “ancient” and said its title single is “thematically great” and a song that “everyone can identify with.”