Remember “Roma”?
The 2018 black-and-white Mexican autofiction was Best Picture-bound with nine nominations, ultimately winning three, including Best International Feature and two for its director and cinematographer Alfonso Cuaron. Nearly a decade ago, streamer Netflix was poised to win its first Best Picture Oscar.
But Academy voters instead rallied behind a popular but less critically acclaimed film from Universal, Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book,” starring Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen as a black musician and his driver who tour the South. That awards season, the hatred toward Netflix was palpable. Academy governor Steven Spielberg advocated for “Green Book” behind the scenes and argued that Netflix films should qualify for Emmys and not Oscars.
There was a sense of relief at the Governors Ball after the Oscars.
Year after year, Netflix’s Crack Awards team has garnered multiple nominations, but missed out on Best Picture. Since 2019, nine films have lost that gold statuette, including Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman,” Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” and Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez,” all derailed by scandal. Netflix’s two best picture awards last year, acclaimed period tales “Train Dreams” and “Frankenstein,” were bested by Warner Bros.’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another.”
For some time now, many Hollywood players have been negative towards Netflix, largely due to the widespread perception that Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos wants to kill off theaters. Over time, he has tried to convey his love for cinema as well as his preference towards the streaming model rather than theatricality.
This year, after Netflix pursued and lost a merger with Warner Bros., the mood changed within the industry. Warners numbers that in the wake of Sarandos’s learning experience, they have taken a decisive U-turn from embracing dramatic performances – mostly to potential Oscar contenders.
Why? Have to earn money. Filmmakers will be tempted. And to win an Oscar.
This weekend marks the beginning of that pivot, as Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrosi (Los Javis)’s $17 million Cannes Best Director-winning period gay epic “La Bola Negra” will be released in theaters in New York and Los Angeles on October 16.
This is no “Knives Out” or post-Netflix “Kpop Demon Hunters” theater stunt. This marks the first time that Netflix will not only be solely reporting box office numbers, but also supporting traditional platform releases – such as A24 or Sony Pictures Classics – reaching four theaters and expanding from six to ten, then to 30 in the third week.
The film will be released in more than 75 markets by November 6. Of course, playability will determine how widespread it will be by the time it arrives on Netflix on December 2nd. If theaters still want to run it, they can.
Following warm receptions at fall festivals, including the prestigious People’s Choice Awards in Toronto, “La Bola Negra” has gained momentum. This award will be at the top of voters’ screener piles. It not only leads the international feature race, but is also swept in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Song, Supporting Actor and Actress as well as Craft nominations. It can land nine or ten times. (Oscar rules now allow two nominations for a performer in one category, Penelope Cruz could get nominations for both “The Invited” and “La Bola Negra.”)
The film is breaking box office records in Spain, climbing week after week.
Netflix has other fish to fry this year. Korea’s Oscar entry, Lee Chang-dong’s Venice Silver Bear-winning “Possible Love,” also led the fall festivals and is in the running for international, picture and best actress for Jeon Do-yeon. The critics group will probably give it some love at the end of the year.
The two Netflix titles will compete in the international category with Neon’s Palme d’Or-winning “Fjord” and “All of a Sudden” and MUBI’s “Fatherland” and “Minotaur.” The shortlist of 15 is the first phase, announced on December 15.
Where “The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,” the David Fincher-directed Quentin Tarantino-scripted sequel starring Brad Pitt, will end up with Oscar voters is anyone’s guess. While Fincher is tinkering in the editing room, Netflix has confirmed an IMAX-exclusive run for two weeks from November 25, 2026, ahead of a December 23 streaming date.
We will see whether Netflix can do better by winning an Oscar this year. It seems, perhaps the tables have turned.